Following the US military's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 4, 2026, Latin American governments are rethinking their reliance on China and Russia for protection against Washington. Beijing has reaffirmed its commitment to Venezuela amid ongoing energy ties, while US President Trump pledged forces will oversee a political transition to keep oil flowing globally, including to China.
The US operation that captured Maduro has prompted a geopolitical reassessment across Latin America, with analysts highlighting Washington's ability to act decisively and potentially erode Beijing and Moscow's regional influence. Eric Farnsworth, senior associate at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, noted: “What matters is not the rhetoric, but whether it is followed by action. What happened in Venezuela shows this is not just language in a strategy document.”
Trump has stated US forces will remain to supervise Venezuela's transition while ensuring its vast oil reserves— the world's largest, concentrated in the Orinoco Belt—continue flowing to markets, including China. Key Chinese firms like China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) operate joint ventures with PDVSA, such as PetroSinovensa, exporting heavy crude to service Venezuelan debt. Despite US sanctions, deals persist; China Concord Resources Corp started developing oilfields in August 2024 under a 20-year agreement, planning $1 billion investment for 60,000 barrels per day by late 2026.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian responded: “Regardless of Venezuela’s political shifts, China remains committed to deepening cooperation, with legal protections for its investments intact.” He stressed that state-to-state ties are safeguarded by international law. While US refineries are optimized for Venezuelan heavy crude, China's diversified imports may limit impacts; other suppliers like Canada, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the EU could see market shifts.
The raid has sparked Taiwan security concerns, with experts fearing the People's Liberation Army might pursue similar 'decapitation' tactics, though officials there affirm readiness.
