Economist Achim Truger views the current pension debate as excessively exaggerated. In an interview, he expresses concerns about weak exports for 2026 but anticipates a boost from government investments. He advocates for a broader consideration of the care economy in retirement provisions.
Achim Truger, a 56-year-old professor of socioeconomics at the University of Duisburg-Essen and member of the German Council of Economic Experts, looks ahead to the German economy in 2026 in an interview. Weak exports since 2022 concern him most: "First came Corona with disruptions to supply chains, then the energy price shock. Now Donald Trump is coming with his tariffs – and closely related, the industry is in a deep crisis. Added to this is China with its newly gained competitiveness and massive subsidies." This crisis is unusual, as exports typically pull the economy out of recessions, but here a persistent downward trend continues.
Truger is positive about the federal government's financial package: "I expect a solid boost from the federal government's financial package. In addition to credit-financed defense spending, parts of the infrastructure special fund are likely to take effect. I'm thinking of road and rail construction." Measures such as the investment booster, improved depreciation options, higher research allowance, and the industrial electricity price, along with the transfer of the first tranches from the special fund to states and municipalities, are set to provide impulses. Rising real incomes could invigorate private consumption.
On the pension debate, Truger warns: "I consider the entire debate about pensions to be completely exaggerated." Despite demographic challenges – more elderly, fewer young people – he sees stabilization options through higher contributions, inclusion of uninsured self-employed, later retirement age, increased female employment, and immigration. He criticizes linking retirement age to contribution years, as it would burden women: "But what bothers me is that women would be heavily burdened because they usually have larger interruptions in their employment biographies." Instead, he calls for recognition of the care economy, such as grandparents' childcare or volunteer work, which fosters intergenerational solidarity. A declining security level below 42 percent would lead to more reliance on basic security and breed uncertainty harmful to the economy.
Truger rejects advancing the corporate tax cut: "That's a total harebrained idea." On holidays: "Definitely no," as their effects are overstated and underutilization is the current issue.
