テスラ、Model S/X生産終了でロボット事業へシフト、法務とサイバートラック更新の中で進展

2025年Q4決算発表でフリーモント工場のModel SおよびX生産スペースをOptimusロボットへ移行するとしたテスラは、Autopilot責任判決2430万ドルが維持される中、Cybertruck価格を引き下げ需要喚起を図る。CEOイーロン・マスクは短期自律走行目標を説明、Robotaxiサービスが監督なし運用を拡大。

テスラはModel SおよびModel X生産——出力の3%未満——を終了し、フリーモント工場を人型ロボットOptimusへ転用する方針を最近のQ4決算カンファレンスで明らかにした。これにより、同社は自律走行とロボット分野のリーダーへ変革を強調。  nn注目すべき法廷進展として、連邦判事は2019年フロリダ州キー・ラルゴでの死亡事故に対し、テスラに陪審が下した2億4300万ドルの判決を維持、Autopilotの欠陥に33%の責任を認めた。  nnCybertruckの課題(リコール、品質問題)に対処するため、テスラはデュアルモーター版を59,990ドルで発売、Cyberbeast価格を114,990ドルから99,990ドルへ引き下げ、2025年11月のプログラム責任者退任後。  nn決算カンファレンスでマスクは、年末までに米国全体の4分の1から半分を完全自律車両でカバーと予測、無監督Robotaxiサービスをオースティンおよびベイエリアで500台超で展開。  nnテスラ株は2026年2月21日終値412ドル、前週比1%下落、52週高値498.83ドルから17%安。投資家は二分:Coatue Managementは2025年12月31日時点で510万株保有を5.1%減の160万株へ、Viking Globalは5.6%増の170万株へ。  nnウォール街平均目標株価421.73ドル(125-600ドル)、2026年売上高1030.2億ドル、調整後EPS2.06ドル見込み。

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News illustration showing Tesla's profit decline contrasted with optimistic AI robotaxi and Optimus robot future.
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Tesla's 2025 Profits Plunge 46% as It Pivots to AI, Robotics, and Autonomy Amid Sky-High Valuation

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Tesla reported a 46% drop in 2025 full-year profits to $3.8 billion—the first annual revenue decline—due to falling vehicle deliveries, competition, and lost EV tax credits. Despite Q4 challenges, it beat earnings estimates, unveiled a strategic shift to 'physical AI' including scrapping Model S/X production, launching TerraFab chip factory, ramping robotaxis and Optimus robots, and planning $20B+ capex, fueling analyst optimism and a forward P/E ratio of 196 versus auto peers.

Tesla reported its first annual revenue decline in 2025, with vehicle deliveries falling 8.6% to 1.64 million units. The company announced a shift away from traditional cars toward artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous vehicles during its fourth-quarter earnings call. CEO Elon Musk emphasized ambitious goals for humanoid robots and robotaxis, even as Wall Street analysts remain divided on the strategy.

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Tesla intends to cease production of its Model S and Model X vehicles and repurpose factory lines to manufacture Optimus humanoid robots. The company is redirecting California manufacturing capacity toward large-scale robotics and autonomy initiatives. This multi-year transition highlights a strategic shift in Tesla's use of facilities and resources.

Tesla announced in its Q4 2025 earnings call that it will cease production of flagship Model S (2012) and Model X (2015) by end-June 2026, redirecting low-utilization Fremont factory capacity to produce up to 1 million Optimus humanoid robots annually and Cybercab autonomous taxis starting H1 2026. CEO Elon Musk termed it an 'honorable discharge' for the legacy models, which saw ~30,000 deliveries in 2025 (~2% of total), signaling a pivot to AI, robotics, and full autonomy amid the company's first annual revenue decline and EV competition.

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Tesla shares fell 2.4% in premarket trading to $393.64 on March 3, 2026, amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The company plans to showcase its third-generation Optimus humanoid robot during the first quarter, with analysts expecting improvements in dexterity and production scalability. This reveal highlights Tesla's focus on robotics as a key growth area, despite significant risks for shareholders.

Analysts have slashed Tesla's vehicle delivery estimates for a third consecutive year, citing slower demand and rising investments in autonomous technologies. CEO Elon Musk's shift toward robotaxis and humanoid robots is raising cash flow concerns for the electric vehicle maker. Despite short-term challenges, focus remains on long-term prospects in self-driving and robotics.

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A Motley Fool analyst forecasts that Tesla's stock will fall below a $1 trillion valuation before the end of 2026, citing declining electric vehicle sales and an elevated price-to-earnings ratio. The prediction comes amid challenges in Tesla's core business, despite excitement around future products like the Cybercab robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robot. Tesla currently holds a $1.5 trillion market cap, the seventh-largest among U.S. companies.

 

 

 

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