The New START nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia expired in early February 2026 without extension. President Donald Trump declined a proposed one-year renewal, criticizing the Obama-era agreement and calling for a new treaty that includes China. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the need to address China's rapid nuclear buildup in any future framework.
The New START treaty, signed in 2011, limited deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 for both the US and Russia and included rigorous on-site inspections. It previously received a five-year extension in 2021 by Russian President Vladimir Putin and then-US President Joe Biden. However, Putin proposed a further one-year extension in early 2026, which Trump rejected.
In a Truth Social post on Thursday, February 5, 2026, Trump stated: “Rather than extend ‘NEW START’ (a badly negotiated deal … that, aside from everything else, is being grossly violated), we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future.” The treaty officially expired the following day.
Russia had announced in 2023, during its war with Ukraine, that it would suspend recognition of New START but later affirmed it would continue observing the limits. Ahead of the expiration, reports indicated US and Russian officials, including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, discussed a potential extension, but Trump dismissed the idea.
On Friday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued for a new approach beyond the bilateral Cold War model. He wrote on the State Department’s Substack: “A treaty requires at least two parties, and the choice before the United States was to bind itself unilaterally or to recognize that a new era requires a new approach... A treaty that reflects that the United States could soon face not one, but two, nuclear peers in Russia and China.”
Rubio highlighted China’s nuclear arsenal nearly tripling since 2020, from the low 200s to almost 600 warheads, with projections exceeding 1,000 by 2030. “China’s rapid and opaque expansion of its nuclear arsenal since New START entered into force has rendered past models of arms control... obsolete,” he added. The US has accused China of secret tests, including one on June 22, 2020, masked by a “decoupling” technique to evade seismic detection.
Rubio affirmed: “Russia and China should not expect the United States to stand still while they shirk their obligations and expand their nuclear forces. We will maintain a robust, credible, and modernized nuclear deterrent, but we will do so while pursuing all avenues to fulfill the President’s genuine desire for a world with fewer of these awful weapons.” This shift raises concerns about escalating nuclear competition involving multiple powers.
