A joint study by Hong Kong and Singapore universities warns that the El Niño phenomenon could cost Hong Kong up to US$300 billion in economic losses over the 21st century. It also finds that Hongkongers born during the strong El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 could see their life expectancy reduced by five to seven months. Published in Nature Climate Change, the research describes El Niño—a Pacific Ocean warming pattern—as a “persistent driver of health and economic loss”, beyond a mere short-term weather anomaly.
A study led by Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, in collaboration with City University of Hong Kong, examined over six decades of mortality records and economic data from 10 high-income Pacific Rim countries and regions. These include Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Australia, Canada, South Korea, the United States, Chile, and Taiwan. The research, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, concludes that El Niño—a climate pattern marked by Pacific Ocean warming—is a “persistent driver of health and economic loss”, rather than just a short-term weather anomaly.
For Hong Kong specifically, extreme weather from El Niño could result in losses of up to US$300 billion over the 21st century. On health impacts, the study estimates life expectancy losses of 0.5 years for those born during the 1982-83 El Niño and 0.4 years for the 1997-98 event—equivalent to five to seven months. Across all studied areas, this translates to economic losses of US$2.6 trillion for the 1982-83 cohort and US$4.7 trillion for the 1997-98 group.
Researchers, including Benjamin Horton and Dr Dhrubajyoti Samanta, highlight the need to view El Niño's effects as enduring. The findings underscore the broader implications for Asia and other regions, urging better preparedness against such climate events amid global warming.
