유가 충격에 맞선 포퓰리즘 조치 주의하라

미·이란 분쟁으로 필리핀 유가가 상승하면서 유류 특별세 유예와 가격 규제 요구가 나오고 있다. 경제학자들은 수입 손실과 불균등 혜택 등 단점을 경고한다. 취약계층 대상 지원이 더 효과적이라는 평가다.

중동의 지속적인 긴장, 특히 미·이란 분쟁으로 유가가 상승해 필리핀의 교통, 식품 비용, 인플레이션에 영향을 미치고 있다. 정부 경제학자들은 인플레이션이 최대 7.5%까지 이를 수 있다고 전망한다. 이로 인해 유류제품 특별세 유예와 가격 규제 재도입 제안이 제기됐으며, 이는 소비자 보호 조치로 제시되고 있다.

관련 기사

Realistic photo of a Philippine gas station celebrating fuel price rollbacks to P23 per liter for diesel, with happy drivers amid jeepneys and price signs.
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Fuel prices roll back up to P23 per liter starting April 14 after weeks of Middle East-driven hikes

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Oil firms confirmed price rollbacks effective 6 a.m. Tuesday, April 14, matching Department of Energy projections: diesel down P20.89 to P23 per liter, gasoline P4.43 to P4.50, and kerosene P8.50. The cuts end surges of over P100 on diesel since late February's Middle East crisis. President Marcos suspended excise taxes on LPG and kerosene, while a jeepney subsidy launches.

As fuel prices roll back after Middle East-driven hikes, economic managers justified not suspending diesel and gasoline excise taxes, arguing it would mostly aid the wealthy. They highlighted a targeted P10 per liter subsidy for public utility vehicles and suspensions on LPG and kerosene for the vulnerable.

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In response to ongoing fuel price volatility from Middle East tensions and global oil surges, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued Executive Order No. 114 on April 16, 2026, suspending excise taxes on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and kerosene for three months to ease burdens on Filipino households, following economic managers' defense of targeted relief.

A total of 425 out of 14,485 gas stations nationwide were temporarily closed as of March 27 due to the fuel crisis triggered by the Iran war, according to the Philippine National Police. The Cordillera Administrative Region recorded the highest number at 79, while President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a national energy emergency.

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MANILA, Philippines — The transport strike entered its fourth week as drivers’ groups intensified calls for a rollback in fuel prices. At the current world market rate, fuel prices should range from P70 to P75 per liter, said Manibela chairperson Mar Valbuena.

Following last week's rollbacks, diesel prices are forecast to drop another P17 to P19 per liter and gasoline P2 to P3 per liter starting April 21, potentially taking diesel below P130, as Middle East tensions ease further with a holding ceasefire.

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The Philippine government would need P429 billion to fund support and relief if the Middle East conflict extends until December, according to the Department of Economy, Planning and Development. Secretary Arsenio Balisacan presented the estimates at yesterday's Senate PROTECT committee hearing. The measures include transport support, fuel and fertilizer subsidies, and social protection for the poor.

 

 

 

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