警惕应对油价冲击的民粹主义措施

美伊冲突推高了菲律宾的油价,引发暂停消费税和调控价格的呼声。经济学家警告称,这可能导致收入损失和利益分配不均。针对弱势群体的援助被视为更有效。

中东持续紧张局势,特别是美伊冲突,导致油价上涨,影响菲律宾的交通运输、食品成本和通胀。政府经济学家预测通胀率可能高达7.5%。这引发了暂停石油产品消费税并恢复价格管制的提议,这些措施被视为消费者保护措施。nn在国会,一项法案正在推进,该法案将授权费迪南德·马科斯 Jr. 总统在紧急情况下暂停消费税。该法案由众议院议长福斯蒂诺·“博迪”·迪和总统之子桑德罗·马科斯提出。此外,还有人呼吁废除1998年的石油放松管制法,该法被指责导致价格波动。nn然而,菲律宾大学经济学系的JC·普农巴扬博士认为,暂停税收相当于一种粗放补贴,更惠及使用更多燃料的中产阶级和高收入群体。关于2017年TRAIN法的研究所示,消费税具有边际累进性。根据财政部和海关局的估算,收入可能损失1360亿至3000亿比索,这些资金本可用于医疗或教育。谢温·加奇阿里安参议员强调了这种“权衡”。nn为提供更有效的救济,建议采用针对性转移支付,例如向公共交通车辆司机、农民和渔民提供现金支持,这些群体受油价冲击影响最大。历史上,放松管制前的石油价格稳定基金(OPSF)从1990年至1997年贡献了176亿比索的赤字,据尼姆法·门多萨的报告。nn从长远来看,需要改善公共交通和能源多样化,以减少对进口石油的依赖。虽然冲突可能为临时措施提供正当理由,但不应复兴过时且无效的政策。

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Realistic photo of a Philippine gas station celebrating fuel price rollbacks to P23 per liter for diesel, with happy drivers amid jeepneys and price signs.
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Fuel prices roll back up to P23 per liter starting April 14 after weeks of Middle East-driven hikes

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Oil firms confirmed price rollbacks effective 6 a.m. Tuesday, April 14, matching Department of Energy projections: diesel down P20.89 to P23 per liter, gasoline P4.43 to P4.50, and kerosene P8.50. The cuts end surges of over P100 on diesel since late February's Middle East crisis. President Marcos suspended excise taxes on LPG and kerosene, while a jeepney subsidy launches.

As fuel prices roll back after Middle East-driven hikes, economic managers justified not suspending diesel and gasoline excise taxes, arguing it would mostly aid the wealthy. They highlighted a targeted P10 per liter subsidy for public utility vehicles and suspensions on LPG and kerosene for the vulnerable.

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In response to ongoing fuel price volatility from Middle East tensions and global oil surges, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued Executive Order No. 114 on April 16, 2026, suspending excise taxes on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and kerosene for three months to ease burdens on Filipino households, following economic managers' defense of targeted relief.

A total of 425 out of 14,485 gas stations nationwide were temporarily closed as of March 27 due to the fuel crisis triggered by the Iran war, according to the Philippine National Police. The Cordillera Administrative Region recorded the highest number at 79, while President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a national energy emergency.

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MANILA, Philippines — The transport strike entered its fourth week as drivers’ groups intensified calls for a rollback in fuel prices. At the current world market rate, fuel prices should range from P70 to P75 per liter, said Manibela chairperson Mar Valbuena.

Following last week's rollbacks, diesel prices are forecast to drop another P17 to P19 per liter and gasoline P2 to P3 per liter starting April 21, potentially taking diesel below P130, as Middle East tensions ease further with a holding ceasefire.

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The Philippine government would need P429 billion to fund support and relief if the Middle East conflict extends until December, according to the Department of Economy, Planning and Development. Secretary Arsenio Balisacan presented the estimates at yesterday's Senate PROTECT committee hearing. The measures include transport support, fuel and fertilizer subsidies, and social protection for the poor.

 

 

 

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