Vermont's Affordable Heat Act, passed in 2023 to reduce heating emissions, was abandoned by regulators in February after years of debate. The policy aimed to shift the state away from fossil fuels for home and business heating but faced political opposition and design challenges. While some view the closure as a financial relief, others lament the lost opportunity for emissions cuts.
In May 2023, Vermont legislators enacted the Affordable Heat Act, establishing the nation's first statewide clean heat standard to lower greenhouse gas emissions from heating. The law sought to address the fact that more than one-third of Vermonters heat with oil and another 20 percent with propane, both high-emission fuels. The state has a legal target to cut emissions 80 percent from 1990 levels by 2050, with most electricity already from renewables like hydropower, solar, and biomass.
The clean heat standard would require fuel providers to reduce emissions through a market-based system of credits earned from installing heat pumps, weatherization, or selling lower-emission fuels. As Richard Cowart, a former Vermont utility regulator, explained, "It leaves choice in the hands of building owners, homeowners, small-business operators," allowing flexibility in implementation.
The program's history was turbulent. In 2022, a similar bill passed the Democratic-led legislature but was vetoed by Republican Governor Phil Scott; an override attempt failed by one vote in the House. The 2023 version passed and overrode the veto by one Senate vote, but included a provision for lawmakers to review the design before enactment—a step that never occurred.
Regulators released their program design in 2025, estimating $956 million in costs over the first decade against $1.5 billion in societal benefits. Heating oil prices would rise by about 8 cents per gallon initially, reaching 58 cents by 2035, while heat pump users could save $500 per season versus oil or over $1,000 versus propane.
Opposition grew amid misinformation. In May 2024, Americans for Prosperity, a conservative group founded by the Koch brothers, launched a campaign falsely claiming the policy taxed oil and mandated heat pumps. State Senator Anne Watson, a Democrat/Progressive supporter, noted, "There ended up being an enormous amount of misinformation floating around about it, which was very frustrating."
The 2024 election saw Scott reelected and 22 legislative seats flip to Republicans, amid concerns over property taxes. A February 2024 regulator report highlighted timeline issues, and a January 2025 assessment concluded the standard was "not well suited to Vermont," recommending existing efficiency programs instead.
Former Senator Chris Bray, who backed the bill, said, "It got weaponized in the campaign season, with a broad misinformation campaign." Lobbyist Matt Cota for fuel sellers added, "We opposed this not because the idea wasn’t good, but because the execution was fatally flawed."
In February, regulators closed the case, dimming prospects for similar initiatives under Scott. Advocates like Cowart believe emissions reductions from heating remain essential: "Over the course of a generation this work is going to get done." Interest persists in states like Colorado and Massachusetts, though progress varies.
