ステファン・ラームシュトルフ氏らによる最近の研究など、2014年以降の地球温暖化速度が～0.36℃/10年に倍増したことを示す分析を基に、科学者らはエアロゾル汚染の減少か自然変動かがこの加速を駆動しているかで意見が分かれている。ほぼ全員が温暖化の加速に同意しているが、原因、速度、将来の軌跡についての見解が異なり、気候感度や適応策に影響を及ぼす。
地球の表面温暖化は2010年代まで10年あたり約0.18℃で安定していたが、その後速まった。2023年（0.17℃で最も暑い年）、2024年（産業革命前比1.5℃超えの初の年）、2025年—欧州の熱波や東南アジア、ジャマイカのサイクロン—による記録的な暑さが極端な気象を招いた：リビアの死者を出した洪水、モザンビーク/メキシコのサイクロン、カナダ、チリ、ギリシャ、ハワイの山火事。
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A study in PLOS Climate reports that U.S. warming trends vary sharply by state and by whether researchers look at temperature averages or extremes. Using data from 1950 to 2021 for the 48 contiguous states, the authors found that 27 states showed statistically significant increases in average temperature, while 41 showed warming in at least one part of their temperature range—such as hotter highs in parts of the West and warmer cold-season lows in parts of the North.
A new analysis in Geophysical Research Letters shows Earth warming at ~0.36°C per decade since 2014—about double the prior rate of 0.18°C per decade—with 98% confidence after accounting for natural factors. Led by Stefan Rahmstorf, the study warns the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit could be breached by 2028, amid debates over short-term trends and data uncertainties.
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James Hansen, a prominent climate scientist at Columbia University, has predicted that 2026 will become the hottest year on record, surpassing 2024 due to accelerating global warming and an impending super El Niño. He argues that current sea surface temperatures support this forecast despite ongoing La Niña cooling. Other experts urge caution amid forecast uncertainties.
A recent study in Science Advances has found that the number of days with conditions ideal for extreme wildfires—combining heat, drought, and wind—has nearly tripled globally in the past 45 years. This increase, driven largely by human-caused climate change, is most notable in the Americas and involves more frequent simultaneous risks across regions. The findings highlight challenges for firefighting resources and underscore the need for homeowner preparedness.
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Researchers have found that shifting ocean temperature patterns, such as El Niño and La Niña, prevent droughts from synchronizing across the planet, affecting only 1.8% to 6.5% of Earth's land at once. This discovery, based on over a century of climate data, suggests a natural safeguard for global food supplies. The study highlights how these patterns create regional variations rather than widespread dry spells.
An international team led by the University of Portsmouth has cataloged more than 3,100 surging glaciers worldwide that can suddenly accelerate, triggering floods, avalanches and other hazards. These glaciers, concentrated in regions like the Arctic and Karakoram Mountains, affect nearly one-fifth of global glacier area despite comprising just 1 percent of all glaciers. Climate change is altering their behavior, increasing unpredictability.
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Scientists using deep-diving Argo floats have pinpointed the reason behind Antarctica's dramatic sea ice contraction starting in 2016. The decline stems from a violent release of pent-up heat from ocean depths, triggered by shifting winds and salinity changes. This discovery highlights the ocean's key role in sea ice variability.